What is an ensemble forecast?

Many model runs with slightly different starting data

About how accurate is a modern five-day forecast compared with older forecasts?

As accurate as a one-day forecast was around 1980

Weather Forecasting Quiz: 10 Questions That Test What You Know

This weather forecasting quiz covers Robert FitzRoy's first forecasts, the telegraph and weather maps, Lewis Fry Richardson, computer models, satellites and radar, ensemble forecasts and how accurate modern forecasts are. Ten questions test what you know about predicting the weather.

Start Weather Forecasting Quiz

🎯 Daily Trivia Challenge • 🧠 10 Questions • ⏱️ 150 Seconds

Question 1 / 10 Time: 150s

First
Who published the first public weather forecasts in Britain in 1861?
Word
Who coined the word forecast for weather predictions?
Telegraph
Which 1800s invention made weather maps possible?
Numbers
Who first tried to forecast weather using mathematical equations in 1922?
Computer
When was the first computer weather forecast made?
Chaos
Whose butterfly effect showed limits to long-range forecasts?
Ensemble
What is an ensemble forecast?
Accuracy
About how accurate is a modern five-day forecast compared with older forecasts?
Center
Which European center runs one of the world's leading weather models?
AI
What new tool has recently improved some weather forecasts?

Explanations: answer key for all 10 questions

Q1: Who published the first public weather forecasts in Britain in 1861?
Answer: Robert FitzRoy
He had been captain of HMS Beagle.
Q2: Who coined the word forecast for weather predictions?
Answer: Robert FitzRoy
He hoped to warn sailors of storms.
Q3: Which 1800s invention made weather maps possible?
Answer: The telegraph
Observations could be shared quickly.
Q4: Who first tried to forecast weather using mathematical equations in 1922?
Answer: Lewis Fry Richardson
His calculation took weeks by hand.
Q5: When was the first computer weather forecast made?
Answer: 1950
It ran on ENIAC.
Q6: Whose butterfly effect showed limits to long-range forecasts?
Answer: Edward Lorenz
Tiny changes can grow into big differences.
Q7: What is an ensemble forecast?
Answer: Many model runs with slightly different starting data
It shows how certain a forecast is.
Q8: About how accurate is a modern five-day forecast compared with older forecasts?
Answer: As accurate as a one-day forecast was around 1980
Forecasts improve about a day per decade.
Q9: Which European center runs one of the world's leading weather models?
Answer: ECMWF
It is based in Reading, England, and Bologna.
Q10: What new tool has recently improved some weather forecasts?
Answer: Artificial intelligence models
AI models can match traditional ones on many tasks.

Weather Forecasting Quiz – Predicting Tomorrow

People have tried to predict the weather for thousands of years using clouds, winds and animal behavior. Scientific forecasting began in the 1800s, when the telegraph let observers share data quickly and Robert FitzRoy issued the first public forecasts to warn sailors.

In 1922, Lewis Fry Richardson showed weather could be calculated using physics equations, though it took him weeks. In 1950 the first computer forecast ran on ENIAC. Edward Lorenz later discovered chaos, explaining why forecasts become uncertain beyond about two weeks.

Today supercomputers process data from satellites, weather balloons, radar, ships and aircraft. Ensemble forecasts show the range of possible outcomes, and artificial intelligence is helping forecasters improve predictions. A five-day forecast now is as good as a one-day forecast was decades ago.

What This Quiz Teaches

This quiz is for students learning about weather forecasting.

Who made the first forecasts
How the telegraph helped
When computers began forecasting
What the butterfly effect is
What ensemble forecasts are

Did You Know?

The UK Met Office was founded in 1854.
Groundhog Day is folklore, not science.
Red sky at night has some scientific basis.
Weather apps use model data.
Forecasters say chance of rain as a probability.